With only three rounds left in the 2025 Formula 1 season, we dive into the deliciously tense title fight between Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen — and crunch the numbers to see when Norris could finally put his hands on that maiden crown.
Fresh off reclaiming the title lead with a dominant win at the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix, Lando Norris doubled down at the 2025 Sao Paulo Grand Prix with the kind of weekend drivers dream about: victory in the Sprint and victory on Sunday. Maximum impact, maximum points.
That Sao Paulo sweep bumped Norris to 390 points and gave him a 24-point cushion over McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri. The pair now level on 2025 Grand Prix wins — seven apiece — while Max Verstappen sits 49 points behind with Red Bull, still holding on to mathematical hope.
All three remain theoretically in the championship hunt. But realistically… when could Norris slam the door shut? Time to break out the calculators.
How many points are still available?
Across the final three race weekends, the absolute maximum haul is 83 points — reached only if a driver wins every remaining Grand Prix and the final Sprint of the year in Qatar.
2025 Drivers’ Championship standings after Sao Paulo
| Pos | Driver | Nationality | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | United Kingdom | McLaren | 390 |
| 2 | Oscar Piastri | Australia | McLaren | 366 |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | Netherlands | Red Bull Racing | 341 |
Can Norris win the title in Las Vegas?
Short answer: absolutely not.
Even in the best-case scenario — Norris wins in Vegas, Piastri scores nothing — the gap would only stretch to 49 points. Not enough. There would still be 58 points on the table after Vegas, so the maths simply doesn’t allow it.
In that same hypothetical, Verstappen’s best possible Vegas result would be second. That would put him at 359 points, which is still seven behind Piastri, even with Oscar failing to score.
Even with Piastri drawing a blank in Vegas, the numbers just don’t add up: Norris cannot clinch the World Championship there.
So when could Norris win it?
Believe it or not: the Qatar Sprint.
Using the above scenario as a base — where Norris leaves Vegas 49 points ahead — he’d only need to outscore Piastri by two points in the Saturday Sprint to seal the deal. A simple seventh-place finish would do it.
Even if Verstappen won the Sprint, his total would rise to 367, leaving him a chunky 50 points behind Norris.
At that point, the only way Verstappen could catch him would be by winning both remaining Grands Prix while Norris scored nothing. But even then, the title would go to Norris on countback: eight wins to Verstappen’s seven.
Verstappen can still bite back mathematically — but everything would need to fall perfectly into place.
What about alternative routes for Piastri or Verstappen?
Consider this twist: Verstappen wins Vegas, Norris finishes second, and Piastri stays pointless. That scenario compresses the fight to a 42-point gap over both challengers.
But even if Norris then wins the Qatar Sprint and both rivals fail to score, his resulting 50-point advantage still isn’t enough to lock in the championship — because of one crucial detail: the win tally.
That version of events would leave Norris on seven wins, Piastri on seven, and Verstappen on six. If Norris then fails to score in the final two Grands Prix and either Piastri or Verstappen wins both, the champion would be whoever claims those last two victories.
The win-count tiebreaker keeps the door open.
There’s another possible twist: if Norris finishes third or lower in Vegas, Piastri doesn’t score, and Verstappen finishes anywhere at all, Norris still cannot clinch the championship in the Qatar Sprint. His maximum pre-Sprint lead would be 39 points, which could only grow to 47 after the Sprint. And with 50 points still to play for across the two remaining Grands Prix, the fight would roll on to Sunday in Qatar no matter what.
So, what’s the Short of it?
No matter what happens, Norris cannot win the World Championship in Las Vegas.
The earliest he can wrap his hands around the trophy is the Qatar Sprint — but only if the stars align just right.
Until then, buckle up. The maths may be complicated, but the fight is beautifully simple: three drivers, three weekends, one title.
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