With Max Verstappen snatching an unexpectedly decisive victory under the lights in Qatar, Formula 1 now moves to Abu Dhabi with the championship wide open — and with three drivers still in the hunt for the 2025 crown.
Had Lando Norris converted P2 in McLaren’s front-row lockout into a win on Sunday at the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix, he would be heading to Yas Marina with the trophy practically secured. Instead, a costly strategic misread means we arrive at the final round, the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, with more than two drivers still mathematically alive for the title for the first time since 2010.
Starting P2 alongside Oscar Piastri, Norris slipped back on the opening lap as Max Verstappen muscled through at Turn 1. McLaren then chose to stay out rather than pit under the early Safety Car — a call that ultimately left both papaya cars facing a near-impossible chase once Red Bull committed to the optimal tyre plan.
By the time Verstappen completed his mandatory two-stop run, the McLaren duo led on track but were heavily offset strategically. Piastri’s final stop dropped him around 17 seconds behind the Red Bull, a gap he couldn’t reel in despite a stellar weekend up to that point. The Australian was forced to settle for second.
Norris, meanwhile, endured a more difficult afternoon. Unable to clear Carlos Sainz for the final podium spot and inheriting one position late on thanks to a mistake from Kimi Antonelli, he crossed the line fourth — a result good enough to keep him ahead in the title race, but not the buffer he’d hoped for.
So the question remains: what does Norris need to do in Abu Dhabi to finally be crowned world champion? Here are the numbers, the permutations and every outcome that matters…
2025 Drivers’ Championship standings heading into Abu Dhabi
| Pos. | Driver | Nationality | Team | Pts. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | United Kingdom | McLaren | 408 |
| 2 | Max Verstappen | Netherlands | Red Bull Racing | 396 |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | Australia | McLaren | 392 |
How Norris becomes champion
Norris arrives at Yas Marina with 408 points — 12 ahead of Verstappen and 16 clear of Piastri. The Australian is still mathematically alive, but realistically needs a great deal to fall his way.
Put simply: If Norris finishes inside the top three, the title is his.
No matter where Verstappen or Piastri finish, a podium will secure the 26-year-old’s first world title.
Conditions for Norris to win the WDC
| Norris’ final race position | Condition for Verstappen to be eliminated | Condition for Piastri to be eliminated |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 2 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 3 | Eliminated | Eliminated |
| 4 | 2nd or worse | Eliminated |
| 5 | 2nd or worse | Eliminated |
| 6 | 2nd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 7 | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 8 | 3rd or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 9 | 4th or worse | 2nd or worse |
| 10 | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse |
| 11 | 4th or worse | 3rd or worse |
If Norris misses the podium…
Verstappen kept his title hopes intact by beating both McLarens in Qatar, not only jumping Piastri in the standings but also edging closer to Norris. If he wins in Abu Dhabi and Norris finishes no higher than P4, Verstappen would claim a fifth consecutive championship — a remarkable turnaround considering he was once 104 points adrift.
His performance, after weeks hampered by bouncing issues, has reignited the chase at precisely the right moment.
Conditions for Verstappen to win the WDC
| Verstappen’s final race position | Condition for Norris to be eliminated | Condition for Piastri to be eliminated |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4th or worse | Eliminated |
| 2 | 8th or worse | 3rd or worse |
| 3 | 9th or worse | 2nd or worse |
And what about Piastri?
Piastri was blunt in his assessment post-race, admitting he would “need a lot of things to go in my direction” to take the title. Still, his pace in Qatar — arguably his strongest display in weeks — keeps the faint possibility alive.
To pull it off, Norris must stumble badly, and Verstappen will need to be kept out of the podium positions — meaning Ferrari, Mercedes or perhaps even Aston Martin could play a decisive supporting role. Piastri’s path is the narrowest, but not yet closed.
He can only triumph by finishing 1st or 2nd, and only if neither Norris nor Verstappen finish on the podium.
Conditions for Piastri to win the WDC
| Piastri’s final race position | Condition for Norris to be eliminated | Condition for Verstappen to be eliminated |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5th or worse | Eliminated |
| 2 | 10th or worse | 4th or worse |
Abu Dhabi rarely arrives with this much on the line. One race remains, three contenders stand, and F1 history waits for whichever driver conquers Yas Marina under the floodlights.
Seen in:
